Ammo prices have steadily declined in the last couple of years. Guns are available, often with rebates and add-ons to increase their value. The COVID scare is over, and the “second Trump slump” has hit. Is ammo as cheap as it was in 2018? No, but neither is anything else. However, it is likely as cheap as we will see for some time, and you should be stocking up right now.
It’s Time to Start Stocking Up on Ammo
As a gun owner who went through the drought of 2012, the 2016 mini-drought, and the COVID-19 drought, I am telling you it is time to buy. Eventually, another drought will hit, and ammo and guns will disappear. All we need is a political shift, and we will be back to the bad times, where ammo is scarce, guns double in price, and people flock to stores to flip inventory.
Why Stock Up
When ammo dries up, it dries up hard. It can take years to recover and resume normal sales, with the price often landing higher permanently. Stocking up when you can, specifically when ammo is hitting lows, ensures you have rounds to shoot in the future without going broke. That is the most obvious answer.
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You might ask: how long does a drought last? That is up in the air. It is tough to predict; the COVID bump and the 2012 drought lasted years. Sometimes the drought ends, but some calibers remain difficult to obtain.
Do you guys remember the price 22LR commanded in 2012 and even into 2013? It was absolutely ridiculous. It reached the point where plinking was dead, and my 22s went unshot because it wasn’t that much cheaper to buy from flippers than it was to just buy 9mm.
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Some calibers become so rare that, once the panic is over, they remain scarce and difficult to find thanks largely to resellers. Stocking up now helps you maintain a supply to shoot, train, and compete.
What Should I Target?
I would target the calibers you shoot most first. With that said, the big calibers that disappear are 223, 5.56, and 9mm. They are the first to go, followed by 22LR, 7.62×39, and eventually 38 Special and 357 Magnum. Often, one caliber becomes so popular that production cannot keep up, and companies prioritize it by reducing the production of other, less popular cartridges.
It is not that 30-30 suddenly became uber-popular; it is just that companies slow or even eliminate the production of secondary calibers to focus on 9mm and 5.56 for periods of time. This creates a chain reaction that leads to overall shortages.
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With that in mind, if you shoot 9mm and 5.56, stock up on it. Get as much as you can afford without making a bad financial decision. Skip DoorDash and eating out for a week, and turn that money into ammo.
If you are a more casual gun owner who hunts and doesn’t need high-volume cartridges, it is still wise to stock up on a few boxes of your favorite caliber. You don’t need a ton, but you need enough to get you through a season or two, with some extra to make sure your scope is sighted in.
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Oftentimes, shotguns seem to be pretty unaffected by droughts. However, this might change during the next one. According to some friends at Mossberg, they sold a lot of shotguns during COVID, and the next drought might see shotgun ammo snatched off the shelves. Additionally, stuff like .410 always disappears for whatever reason, likely to free up production for more popular cartridges.
How To Stock Up
Bulk buys always rule. If you buy a box a week, you will get there, but if you can save up for a few weeks, I would buy in bulk. You can save a few cents per round by purchasing 500 or 1,000 rounds at a time. Saving money is the entire goal of stocking up.
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It also matters where you shop. Stores like Bass Pro and Cabela’s have notoriously high prices; they aren’t the best places to buy. Academy is a bit better, especially with their club card that gives you 5% off. For bulk ammo, buying online is usually the best option.
I have purchased a lot of remanufactured 9mm rounds from Ammunition Depot without any problems. In over 3,000 rounds I have shot from their reman line, I have had only one failure to fire. It is the cheapest 9mm I can find, and they even provide free shipping when you spend over a certain amount. I have recently purchased some dirt-cheap 223 and 300 Blackout from them, and while I haven’t shot much of it yet, if it performs like their 9mm, I am a fan.
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Components and Firearms
I am not a reloader, but it is one of those things on my list to get around to. However, during droughts, my reloader friends were left in the cold. Primers seem to be the big thing that disappears first. Following that, we lose access to powders and eventually projectiles. If you reload, especially if you are new to it, start stocking up on those components now.
On the subject of guns, do you have a certain firearm or build you are looking to complete? Now is the time to get it done. During droughts, ammo isn’t the only thing that disappears. Guns seem to evaporate, especially anything that is remotely modern. Now is a good time to finish those projects because the prices are not going to get much lower.
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Final Thoughts
The gun industry is feast or famine, and the perspective changes depending on whether you are a buyer or a seller. With that in mind, it is a buyer’s market at the moment, and you should be taking full advantage of it.
